The Role of Independent Fiscal Policy Institutions

The paper analyses how independent fiscal watchdogs (fiscal policy councils) can strengthen the incentives for fiscal discipline. Several countries have recently established such institutions. By increasing fiscal transparency they can raise the awareness of the long-run costs of current deficits and increase the reputational costs for governments of violating their fiscal rules. Councils that make also normative judgements, where fiscal policy is evaluated against the government's own pre-set objectives, are likely to be more influential than councils that do only positive analysis. To fulfil their role adequately, fiscal watchdogs should be granted independence in much the same way as central banks. There are arguments both in favour and against extending the remit of a fiscal policy council to include also tax, employment and structural policies. Whether or not this should be done depends on the existence of other institutions making macroeconomic forecasts and analysing fiscal policy, the existence of institutions providing independent analysis in other economic policy areas, and the severity of fiscal problems.Fiscal Policy Council; Fiscal policy; Government policy;

Fiscal Policy Coordination in Europe

A fundamental overhaul of EU economic governance is needed. The most important reform is a strengthening of national fiscal frameworks, including the establishment of independent fiscal watchdogs in Member States that do not yet have such institutions. At the European level, a permanent crisis resolution mechanism should be integrated with both broader macroeconomic surveillance and the sanction system. An independent European fiscal council could, based on macroeconomic risk considerations, decide in advance appropriate haircuts in the event of future sovereign debt restructuring.EU; economic governance; fiscal policy; macroeconomics

The Swedish Fiscal Policy Council: Watchdog with a Broad Remit

The Swedish Fiscal Policy Council (FPC) set up in 2007 is one example of the recent international trend to create independent fiscal watchdogs. The FPC has established itself as an important participant in the Swedish economic policy discussion. The FPC has small resources and a broad remit including employment, growth, income distribution and monitoring of how well the government explains its policies in addition to evaluation of fiscal policy. The reason why it can work is that the FPC acts as a complement to other institutions. The interaction between fiscal policy and other policy areas as well as the possibility to exploit the council’s expertise in several areas are arguments in favour of the broad mandate, but at the same time there could be a risk that interest is diverted away from fiscal issues. The FPC’s experiences illustrate the time inconsistency issues involved in establishing a fiscal council: a government has an incentive to create such a body as a signal that it will pursue responsible and rational policies, but it also has an incentive to constrain the council’s activities once government policies are criticised.fiscal councils, fiscal discipline, fiscal frameworks

THE SWEDISH FISCAL POLICY COUNCIL – Experiences and Lessons

The Swedish Fiscal Policy Council, established in 2007, has small resources but a broad remit. In addition to monitoring the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy, the council evaluates the short-run fiscal stance from a cyclical perspective. The council also analyses long-run employment and growth developments. Another task is to evaluate the motives, explanations and research basis for government policies. There is no unique best set-up of a fiscal policy council. Instead, it has to be adapted to the special characteristics of each country. The set-up of the Swedish council appears consistent both with the preexisting institutional framework, with also other bodies making detailed budget evaluations and macroeconomic forecasts, and with a strong tradition of academic participation in the policy debate. The broad remit could lead to less focus on the fiscal watchdog role. On the other hand, the council plays a "supervisory" role in the general economic policy debate, helping to raise the standards of the discussion, which is a fundamental democratic objective.The Swedish Fiscal Policy Council; fiscal policy; government policy; labor economics; growth

The Role of Independent Fiscal Policy Institutions

The paper analyses how independent fiscal watchdogs (fiscal policy councils) can strengthen the incentives for fiscal discipline. By increasing fiscal transparency they can raise the awareness of the long-run costs of current deficits and increase the reputational costs for governments of violating their fiscal rules. Councils that make also normative judgements, where fiscal policy is evaluated against the government’s own pre-set objectives, are likely to be more influential than councils that do only positive analysis. To fulfil their role adequately, fiscal watchdogs should be granted independence in much the same way as central banks.fiscal institutions, deficit bias, fiscal transparency

Wages and Wage-Bargaining Institutions in the Emu : A Survey of the Issues

A perceived need to increase nominal wage flexibility as a substitute for domestic monetary policy and a tendency to less wage moderation are likely to promote bargaining co-ordination and social pacts in the EMU. But such co-ordination is not likely to be sustainable in the long run, as it conflicts with other forces working in the direction of decentralization and deunionisation. Although monetary unification will strengthen the incentives for higher-level transnational co-ordination of wage bargaining, such a development is improbable because of the co-ordination costs involved. If transnational co-ordination develops, it is most likely to occur within multinational firms.Wage bargaining, co-ordination, monetary union

Wages and wage-bargaining institutions in the EMU – a survey of the issues

The paper distinguishes between the impact of the EMU on nominal wage flexibility and on equilibrium real wage and unemployment levels. A perceived need to increase nominal wage flexibility as a substitute for domestic monetary policy and a tendency to less real wage moderation in the EMU are likely to promote informal bargaining co-ordination and social pacts in the medium run. But such co-ordination is not likely to be sustainable in the long run, as it conflicts with other forces working in the direction of decentralization and deunionisation. This could lead to more government intervention in wage setting during a transitional period. Although monetary unification will strengthen the incentives for higher-level transnational co-ordination of wage bargaining, such a development is improbable in view of the co-ordination costs involved. If transnational co-ordination develops, it is most likely to occur within multinational firms.wage; bargaining; EMU

The Swedish Fiscal Policy Council

N/AThe Swedish Fiscal Policy Council; fiscal policy; government policy

Pattern Bargaining and Wage Leadership in a Small Open Economy

Pattern bargaining with the tradables (manufacturing) sector as wage leader is a common form of wage bargaining in Europe. We question the conventional wisdom that such bargaining produces wage restraint. In our model all forms of pattern bargaining give the same outcomes as uncoordinated bargaining under inflation targeting. Under monetary union wage leadership for the non-tradables sector is conducive to wage restraint, whereas wage leadership for the tradables sector is not. Comparison thinking may lead the follower to set the same wage as the leader. Such equilibria can arise when the leader sector is the smaller sector and promote high employment.pattern bargaining, wage setting, inflation targeting, monetary regimes

UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS, CONTRACT LENGTH AND NOMINAL WAGE FLEXIBILITY

We show in a union-bargaining model that a decrease in the unemployment benefit level increases not only equilibrium employment, but also nominal wage flexibility, and thus reduces employment variations in the case of nominal shocks. Long-term wage contracts lead to higher expected real wages and hence higher expected unemployment than short-term contracts. Therefore lower benefits reduce the expected utility gross of contract costs of a union member more with long-term than with short-term contracts and thus create an incentive for shorter contracts. Incentives for employers work in the same direction. Lower taxes associated with lower benefits also tend to make short-term contracts more attractive.nominal wage flexibility; contract length; macroeconomic fluctuations; unemployment benefits.